SportsLine’s proven model simulated the 3M Open 2024 10,000 times and revealed its surprising PGA Tour golf picks
After hosting a PGA Tour Champions event for 26 years, the greater Twin Cities area got its chance to hold an annual PGA Tour event when the 3M Open was created in 2019. Now the tour will head to TPC Twin Cities to get back on the FedEx Cup grind after a daunting week at Royal Troon, with the 2024 3M Open beginning on Thursday. Tony Finau has three top-10 finishes under his belt at TPC Twin Cities, including a victory in the 2022 3M Open, and he’ll be in the 2024 3M Open field after missing out on making the United States Olympic team.
Finau is currently ranked No. 18 in the Official World Golf Ranking and he’s the 10-1 favorite in the 2024 3M Open odds. He’s followed by Sam Burns (18-1), Sahith Theegala (22-1) and Akshay Bhatia (28-1), while defending champion Lee Hodges is an 80-1 longshot despite winning this event by seven strokes last season. Before locking in your 2024 3M Open picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model is up nearly $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
This same model has also nailed a whopping 13 majors entering the weekend, including the 2024 Masters — its third Masters in a row — and this year’s PGA Championship and U.S. Open. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now with the 2024 3M Open field locked in, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
Top 2024 3M Open predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 3M Open: Burns, a five-time winner on the PGA Tour and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top five. Burns has been playing well in recent weeks, finishing T-15 or better in three of his last five starts on the PGA Tour.
However, he has struggled with consistency this season, especially with his iron play. Burns enters this week’s event ranked 101st in strokes gained: approach to green (0.016) and 131st in greens in regulation percentage (64.13%). TPC Twin Cities places a premium on precision, which doesn’t bode well for Burns’ chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. See who else to fade here.
Another surprise: Tom Hoge, a 33-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 35-year-old is ranked 54th in the world entering the week and he’s coming off a T-72nd finish at the 2024 Open Championship. However, he’s only a month removed from a T-3rd finish at the Travelers Championship and he’s had some success at TPC Twin Cities.
Hoge finished T-4th at the 2022 3M Open and he’s made the cut four of the five times that he’s played this tournament with three top-25 finishes to his name. He’s ranked 20th in the FedEx Cup standings, and with several top players choosing to take a week off after the Open Championship and to prepare for Olympic golf, this is a golden opportunity for Hoge to have a big week and move up. He ranks second on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach (.911) this season and he’ll be relying on that ball striking heavily this week. See who else to back here.
2024 3M Open odds, top contenders
Tony Finau +1000
Sam Burns +1800
Sahith Theegala +2200
Akshay Bhatia +2500
Luke Clanton +2800
Keith Mitchell +3000
Keegan Bradley +3000
Tom Hoge +3300
Billy Horschel +3500
Taylor Pendrith +3500
J.T. Poston +3500
Erik van Rooyen +4000
Maverick McNealy +4000
Cam Davis +4500
Nick Dunlap +4500
Patrick Rodgers +4500
Michael Thorbjornsen +5000
Adam Hadwin +5000
Emiliano Grillo +5500
Kurt Kitayama +5500
Sam Stevens +5500
Justin Rose +5500
Ben Griffin +5500
Mac Meissner +6000
Chan Kim +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6000
Harry Hall +6000
Rico Hoey +6500
Mackenzie Hughes +6500
Ben James +6500
Matt Wallace +7000
Max Greyserman +7500
Adam Svensson +8000
Neal Shipley +8000
Jake Knapp +8000
Lee Hodges +8000
Patrick Fishburn +8000
Doug Ghim +8000
Andrew Novak +8000
Beau Hossler +8000
Seamus Power +8000
Thriston Lawrence +8000
Austin Eckroat +9000
Ben Silverman +9000
Ryo Hisatsune +9000
Pierceson Coody +10000
Michael Kim +10000
Taylor Moore +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Kevin Yu +10000
Hayden Springer +11000
J.J. Spaun +11000
Sam Ryder +12000
Dylan Wu +12000
Chesson Hadley +12000
Andrew Putnam +12000
Santiago de la Fuente +12000
Matti Schmid +12000
S.H. Kim +12000
Carson Young +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Daniel Berger +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
Chandler Phillips +15000
Nate Lashley +15000