SportsLine’s proven model ran 10,000 simulations of the 2021 Valspar Championship and came up with a surprising leaderboard
The par-71 Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Florida has produced some memorable finishes in recent years. In fact, the Valspar Championship winner has been decided by two strokes or less in each of the last 13 tournaments. That could certainly be the case again this year as the 2021 Valspar Championship tees off on Thursday, April 29. The 2021 Valspar Championship field includes past winners of this event who are fetching long odds this week, such as Kevin Streelman (66-1), Gary Woodland (70-1), Charl Schwartzel (100-1) and Luke Donald (500-1).
The 2021 Valspar Championship odds from William Hill Sportsbook list Justin Thomas as the 9-1 favorite. The No. 2 ranked player in the world is followed by Dustin Johnson (10-1), Corey Conners (20-1) and Patrick Reed (20-1) on the PGA odds board. Before locking in any 2021 Valspar Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up over $10,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.
Earlier this month at the Masters, McClure nailed Jon Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing. McClure’s best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.
In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. Those are just some of huge calls he’s made in the past few months.
This same model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.
Now that the 2021 Valspar Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.
The model’s top 2021 Valspar Championship predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2021 Valspar Championship: Paul Casey, the two-time defending champion of this event, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Casey secured four consecutive top-10 finishes earlier this year, but he’s struggled mightily in recent weeks. In fact, Casey missed the cut in his last start at the RBC Heritage and he’s finished outside the top-25 in each of his last three events on the PGA Tour.
Casey’s inconsistent performances can be directly attributed to his short game. The 43-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 129th in putting average (1.768), 102nd in one-putt percentage (40.00) and 152nd in overall putting average (1.614), which doesn’t bode well for his chances to finish on top of the leaderboard. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valspar Championship 2021 field.
Another surprise: Abraham Ancer, a 30-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. Ancer has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Ancer doesn’t explode off the tee quite as much as some of the other top contenders, but he enters this week’s event ranked third in driving accuracy percentage (72.45). Ancer also ranks 13th in greens in regulation percentage (70.44), which has helped him rack up 238 birdies in 56 rounds this season. The 30-year-old has finished inside the top-25 in six of his last eight starts, making him a solid choice for 2021 Valspar Championship bets this week.
How to make 2021 Valspar Championship picks
The model is targeting four other golfers with odds of 28-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.
2021 Valspar Championship odds:
Justin Thomas 9-1
Dustin Johnson 10-1
Corey Conners 20-1
Patrick Reed 20-1
Paul Casey 22-1
Viktor Hovland 22-1
Tyrrell Hatton 28-1
Scottie Scheffler 28-1
Russell Henley 30-1
Abraham Ancer 30-1
Sungjae Im 30-1
Louis Oosthuizen 30-1
Jason Kokrak 33-1
Joaquin Niemann 33-1
Bubba Watson 40-1
Justin Rose 40-1
Cameron Tringale 40-1
Charley Hoffman 45-1
Kevin Na 50-1
Chris Kirk 50-1
Emiliano Grillo 50-1
Ryan Palmer 50-1
Kevin Streelman 66-1
Max Homa 66-1
Kevin Kisner 66-1
Lucas Glover 70-1
Keegan Bradley 70-1
Sam Burns 70-1
Talor Gooch 70-1
Gary Woodland 70-1
Denny McCarthy 80-1
Cameron Davis 80-1
Charles Howell 80-1
Branden Grace 80-1
Erik Van Rooyen 90-1
Lanto Griffin 90-1
Ian Poulter 90-1
Adam Hadwin 90-1
Danny Willett 100-1
Brandt Snedeker 100-1
Phil Mickelson 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Peter Uihlein 100-1
Matthew NeSmith 100-1
Mackenzie Hughes 100-1
Alex Noren 100-1
Doug Ghim 100-1
Charl Schwartzel 100-1
Sam Horsfield 100-1
J.T. Poston 100-1
Henrik Stenson 100-1