2024 Players Championship odds, picks, field, predictions: Golf expert fading Rory McIlroy at TPC Sawgrass

A PGA Tour season laden with longshot winners makes a stop in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., this week for the 2024 Players Championship beginning on Thursday at TPC Sawgrass. In 10 PGA Tour events this year, six winners have been +10000 or longer, and five have been +15000 or more. The biggest longshot was then-amateur Nick Dunlap, who was +40000 to win The American Express. Before Scottie Scheffler’s win last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the shortest-priced player to win this season was Jake Knapp, who was +4000 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

This week, Scheffler is the +500 favorite in the 2024 Players Championship odds. Rory McIlroy (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+2000), Justin Thomas (+2000) and Viktor Hovland (+2200) round out the top five choices in The Players Championship 2024 field. Before locking in any 2024 Players Championship picks, make sure you see the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad.

Nejad specializes in betting and DFS in golf, among other sports. He’s had incredible success in the outright and first-round leader markets and in betting head-to-head matchups. He also has been solid with his head-to-head matchups since last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge, going 33-20-2 and returning 9.17 units over that span. That’s a $917 profit for $100 bettors since May 2023.

Nejad also nailed 75-1 longshot Wyndham Clark as the outright winner at the Wells Fargo Championship. In 2023, SportsLine debuted “The Early Wedge,” and in the first three months of the show, he hit two first-round leaders and three outright winners.

Now, Nejad has focused his attention on the 2024 Players Championship field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. See who they are at SportsLine.

Top 2024 Players Championship expert picks

One surprise: Nejad is completely fading McIlroy, even though he is a strong contender according to The Players Championship odds. The 34-year-old from Northern Ireland has been splitting his time this year between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour. His best finish on the PGA Tour is 21st, at both the Cognizant Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

So far this season, he ranks 129th on tour in strokes gained: putting (-0.246). Despite that, he is still the clear second choice in the Players Championship at +1200. “Given his recent form, there’s no way I can take him at +1200 or less,” Nejad told SportsLine.

However, Nejad is high on the chances of Tom Hoge, who’s a +6600 longshot. Hoge has one win in 265 career starts on the PGA Tour. That victory came in the 2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. This season, Hoge’s best finish was a tie for sixth, also at Pebble Beach.

In five starts at The Players Championship, Hoge has made the cut all five times. Last year, he shot a third-round 62 and tied for third. “His approach game has been dialed in, and he has some good all-around recent form and history at TPC Sawgrass,” Nejad said. See whom else to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 Players Championship picks

Nejad has locked in his best bets for the 2024 Players Championship and is backing several longshots, including one that is priced at more than 60-1. This player “has been absolutely dialed-in with his approach game” and is a longshot who could surprise. You can see Nejad’s PGA Tour picks only at SportsLine.

So which players should you target or avoid for the 2024 Players Championship, and which player in The Players Championship 2024 field could bring a huge payday at more than 60-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sia Nejad’s top picks for the 2024 Players Championship, all from the expert who is 33-20-2 on his last 55 head-to-head picks.

2024 Players Championship odds, field

Scottie Scheffler +500
Rory McIlroy +1200
Xander Schauffele +2000
Justin Thomas +2000
Viktor Hovland +2200
Will Zalatoris +2500
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Max Homa +2500
Collin Morikawa +2800
Jordan Spieth +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3000
Ludvig Aberg +3000
Wyndham Clark +3500
Shane Lowry +3500
Sam Burns +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4500
Si Woo Kim +4500
Russell Henley +4500
Jason Day +4500
Cameron Young +4500
Sahith Theegala +5000
Min Woo Lee +5000
Brian Harman +5000
Byeong Hun An +5500
Tony Finau +6000
Tom Hoge +6000
Matt Fitzpatrick +6000
Corey Conners +6000
Tom Kim +7500
Sungjae Im +7500
Keith Mitchell +8000
Keegan Bradley +8000
Harris English +8000
Cam Davis +8000
Adam Scott +8000
Aaron Rai +8000
Justin Rose +9000
Eric Cole +9000
Emiliano Grillo +9000
Nick Taylor +10000
J.T. Poston +10000
Doug Ghim +10000
Chris Kirk +10000
Brendon Todd +10000
Andrew Putnam +10000
Alex Noren +10000
Adam Hadwin +10000
Nicolai Hojgaard +10000
Denny McCarthy +11000
Billy Horschel +11000
Stephan Jaeger +13000
Sepp Straka +13000
Rickie Fowler +13000
Matthieu Pavon +13000
Lucas Glover +13000
Jake Knapp +13000
Erik Van Rooyen +13000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +13000
Beau Hossler +13000
Ryan Fox +15000
Luke List +15000
Kevin Yu +15000
Davis Thompson +15000
Austin Eckroat +15000
Akshay Bhatia +15000
Patrick Rodgers +18000
Maverick McNealy +18000
Andrew Novak +18000
Taylor Pendrith +20000
Thomas Detry +25000
Ryo Hisatsune +25000
Kurt Kitayama +25000
Taylor Moore +30000
Taylor Montgomery +30000
Seamus Power +30000
Sam Ryder +30000
Nick Dunlap +30000
Matt Wallace +30000
Matt Kuchar +30000
Lee Hodges +30000
K.H. Lee +30000
Justin Suh +30000
Gary Woodland +30000
Garrick Higgo +30000
Chesson Hadley +30000
Chan Kim +30000
Carson Young +30000
Ben Silverman +30000
Ben Kohles +30000
Ben Griffin +30000
Adam Svensson +30000
Webb Simpson +35000
Vincent Norrman +35000
Tyler Duncan +35000
Sami Valimaki +35000
Nico Echavarria +35000
Mark Hubbard +35000
Mackenzie Hughes +35000
Adam Schenk +35000
Troy Merritt +40000
Steve Stricker +40000
Robert MacIntyre +40000
Nick Hardy +40000
Martin Laird +40000
Justin Lower +40000
Joel Dahmen +40000
Jimmy Stanger +40000
J.J. Spaun +40000
Greyson Sigg +40000
Grayson Murray +40000
Francesco Molinari +40000
Charley Hoffman +40000
Chad Ramey +40000
C.T. Pan +40000
Brandon Wu +40000
Alex Smalley +40000
Aaron Baddeley +40000
Scott Stallings +50000
Sam Stevens +50000
Nate Lashley +50000
Michael Kim +50000
Matt NeSmith +50000
Joseph Bramlett +50000
Camilo Villegas +50000
Ben Martin +50000
Brice Garnett +50000
Zac Blair +60000
S.H. Kim +60000
Robby Shelton +60000
Matti Schmid +60000
Peter Malnati +80000
Harry Hall +80000
Dylan Wu +80000
David Skinns +80000
Carl Yuan +80000
Ryan Moore +100000
Kevin Streelman +100000
Hayden Buckley +100000
Davis Riley +100000
David Lipsky +100000
Tyson Alexander +150000
Chez Reavie +150000
Callum Tarren +150000
Ben Taylor +500000

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