Two weeks from Friday, the first tee balls will be struck in the 43rd Ryder Cup at Whistling Straits. Steve Stricker is already there.

The U.S. captain was on site at this year’s host venue on Wednesday as he rounded out his 12-man roster with six captain’s picks: Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Daniel Berger and Scottie Scheffler.

“Just the way these guys play the game, they’re all very impressive in their own right,” Stricker said. “We knew a couple of these guys were going to b picks early on, just from the way they’ve been playing. Guys that finished seventh or eighth on the [points] list, we knew they were going to be picks, so I even leaned on them to kind of round out the team. … Ultimately, it’s my decision, that lays with me, but I want all the information I can possibly get to make those decisions, and we did, we used it all.”

The six picks join automatic qualifiers Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka and recent FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay.

“I’m truly excited about how this team is made up and composed of a good mix of young guys and veterans and the type of players who fit this course perfectly,” Stricker said.

Finau, Schauffele and Spieth had been considered locks to receive picks since missing out on qualifying following the BMW Championship two weeks ago. Finau, who went 2-1 in his Ryder Cup debut in 2018, won The Northern Trust last month before being bumped out of the sixth and final automatic spot by Cantlay, who won each of the last two playoff events. Schauffele will be a rookie, though his Olympic gold medal victory shows he’s in form. Spieth, a three-time Ryder Cupper with a 7-2-2 record not including his 0-3 singles mark, experienced a resurgence this year, winning the Valero Texas Open, finishing runner-up at The Open and climbing back to No. 14 in the world.

“If it were last year I may not have made the team, so in a weird way I feel kind of fortunate that this goal was set at the beginning of this year for me,” said Spieth, who was runner-up at the 2015 PGA at Whistling Straits. “It was kind of a lofty one, I had to make up a lot of ground … just very happy that Captain Strick has put his trust in me.”

English, twice a winner this year, makes his first cup team as a pro, as does Scheffler, the reigning Rookie of the Year, while Berger will also be a Ryder Cup rookie, though he represented the U.S. at the 2017 Presidents Cup, where he went 2-1 but also sat two sessions.

“Rookies fare very well in this type of format, and we’re excited to have these rookies,” said Stricker, noting that U.S. rookies are 40-29-17 in Ryder Cups since 2008. He later added of his six rookies this year: “They bring in an excitement level that’s unmatched, I think. They’re eager, they’re willing to learn, they just want to have that opportunity and they’ll do anything for that opportunity.”
Reed was the biggest question mark after missing the first two playoff events while battling double pneumonia, which caused him to be hospitalized. Reed tied for 17th in his return at East Lake, but he apparently didn’t show Stricker enough to be selected. Reed is 7-3-2, and a perfect 3-0 in singles, in three Ryder Cup appearances.

However, Reed is a combined 2-5 in his last two team appearances, at the 2019 Presidents Cup and 2018 Ryder Cup, and was also embroiled in controversy at both events. After the Americans’ loss in Paris, Reed called out captain Jim Furyk, as well as teammates Tiger Woods and Jordan Spieth, in a New York Times interview. A year later in Australia, his rules violation at the Hero World Challenge the week prior followed him to Royal Melbourne, where his caddie, Kessler Karain, was suspended from the singles session after an altercation with a fan the previous day.

“That was a very, very difficult call, kind of lost sleep over that one,” Stricker said. “[Reed] is a tremendous competitor, he brings a lot to match-play golf. His record here at the Ryder Cup is pretty darn good. … But I think just the uncertainty of his health and really the lack of play that led to our decision down the stretch.”

Reed’s call was the first made by Stricker, who said he called “five or six” players in addition to Reed to inform them that they weren’t picked.

“I just knew that it was gonna be hard, but he took like a true champion and I apologized many times to him,” Stricker said of Reed. “Just wanted to make sure he knew that it was a very difficult decision.”

Aside from Reed’s exclusion, Sam Burns, Kevin Na, Jason Kokrak and Billy Horschel will all have to wait to make their Ryder Cup debuts. Veterans Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner and Phil Mickelson were also not picked. Mickelson had been a part of every Ryder Cup since his debut in 1995.

“I feel like they deserved hearing it from me,” Stricker said. “… To tell them that they’re not part of something that they are dreaming to be a part of was pretty difficult.”

But could there be a seventh pick? Could Reed, or someone else, still have a chance to make the team? With Koepka’s recent right wrist injury, which forced him to withdraw during Saturday’s third round of the Tour Championship, it’s possible one of the players who was passed over Wednesday could, in fact, get the call.

“Yeah, we’ve talked about if we have to replace Brooks, but we’re not there yet,” Stricker said. “We’re focused on these 12 guys and moving forward with these 12 guys, and we’ll deal with that situation if it were to happen.”

Jon Rahm finished second to Patrick Cantlay at East Lake on Sunday, but two days the World No. 1 is back on top.
On Tuesday the PGA of America announced Rahm as its Player of the Year.
Unlike the PGA Tour, which awards POY based on player voting, the PGA of America uses a year-long points formula to determine its winner, with tournament victories, official money standings, and scoring averages featured in its equation. Though Rahm technically has just one win to his name—if “just” can describe his breakthrough at the 2021 U.S. Open—he tied for the lowest score on the Tour Championship’s “shadow” leaderboard and held a six-stroke lead through 54 holes at the Memorial before a positive COVID-19 test knocked him out of the event … which was eventually won by Cantlay. Rahm also had five top-10 finishes in majors this season, whereas Cantlay’s best standing in the six marquee events was a T-15.
Rahm led the tour in scoring (earning the Vardon Trophy in the process), strokes gained and earnings, and racked up a whopping 15 top-10 finishes in just 22 starts. For context, no other player finished with double-digit top-10 finishes this season.

Cantlay’s four wins—the 2020 Zozo Championship, 2021 Memorial, 2021 BMW Championship and 2021 FedEx Cup—stand tall in a season where no other player won more than twice. Yet Cantlay actually finished third in the PGA of America’s point system, with Bryson DeChambeau coming in second. Collin Morikawa, who captured the 2021 Open, finished in fourth.

Could this telegraph a victory for Rahm in the PGA Tour’s Player of the Year? For 27 straight years the same player won both the PGA of America and PGA Tour Player of the Year awards. However, the previous two seasons have delivered different winners; Brooks Koepka took the PGA of America prize but Rory McIlroy got the nod from his PGA Tour peers in 2019, with Justin Thomas (PGA of America) and Dustin Johnson (PGA Tour) splitting honors in 2020.

Catriona Matthew’s side made it back-to-back Solheim Cup victories and claimed just their second away success in the tournament’s history by winning 15-13; Matilda Castren earned the point to retain the trophy before Emily Pedersen sealed the outright title defence
The visitors took a 9-7 lead into the final day at Inverness Golf Club and required just five points to retain the trophy they won in dramatic fashion in 2019, with five and a half points needed to secure only their second away success in Solheim Cup history.
Catriona Matthew’s side won the first three points of the Monday singles to extend their advantage, only for the hosts to claim points from the next five matches to reduce the deficit to two with four games still on the course.
Any hopes of a remarkable American comeback ended when rookie Matilda Castren secured the point needed to retain the trophy, while Emily Pedersen claimed the winning point for Team Europe as they ran out 15-13 winners.

How Europe silenced USA

Ireland’s Leona Maguire, who had claimed a half-point alongside Mel Reid late on Sunday to ensure Europe went into the singles two ahead, signed off her unbeaten debut in style with a 5&4 victory over Jennifer Kupcho to register the first point of a memorable Monday for the visitors.
That win ensured the rookie would finish as the tournament’s top-scorer with four and a half points from her five matches, with Maguire’s success quickly followed by Madelene Sagstrom’s 3&2 win over Ally Ewing and Celine Boutier’s 5&4 thrashing of Mina Harigae to put Europe 12-7 ahead.

Anna Nordqvist and Lexi Thompson finished all square in a thrilling battle that offered comparisons with their epic singles match-up in 2017, which was also halved, while world No 1 Nelly Korda claimed Team USA’s first full point the final day with a 1up victory over Georgia Hall.
Nanna Koerstz Madsen held on for a half-point against Austin Ernst, as Sophia Popov came back from six behind against Megan Khang before eventually going down 3&2.

The American charge continued when Brittany Altomare recovered from going two down with six to play against Carlota Ciganda to win 2&1, only for Castren to hole a clutch putt on her final hole to earn 1up victory over Lizette Salas and take Europe to their required target of 14 points.

Jessica Korda produced a back-nine charge to see off Charley Hull 3&1, while Mel Reid recovered from losing her opening four holes against Yealimi Noh to take the match to the final hole before eventually being beaten 1up.
Emily Pedersen had already built up and unassailable lead against Danielle Kang when the Dane moved three ahead with three to play, all-but guaranteeing the half-point required to ensure the European win, only for Kang to win the next two holes to take the contest to the par-four last.

Kang holed a long-range birdie but Pedersen made one of her own from half the distance to secure the full-point required for the 15-13 victory – Europe’s first away success since their record-breaking victory in 2013.

A one-under 69 gave Patrick Cantlay a one-shot victory and sees him end the 2020-21 ‘super season’ as FedExCup champion; Tour Championship win is his sixth PGA Tour title and fourth of the season, as world No 1 Jon Rahm claims second spot.
Cantlay took a two-shot advantage into the final day at East Lake and never lost his lead throughout a gripping Sunday, with a one-under 69 enough to hold off the Spaniard and secure the biggest prize of his career to date.
The victory is Cantlay’s fourth of a remarkable PGA Tour season, while Rahm was left having to settle for second after a final-round 68 saw him end the week on 19 under.
No player seriously threatened the top pairing throughout the weekend in Atlanta, with a final-round 67 lifting Kevin Na into third spot above 2017 FedExCup champion Justin Thomas – who posted a level-par 70 to end on 15 under.

Rahm – starting two back – recovered from a wayward drive at the first to hole a six-footer to save par but found himself three behind when he failed to convert his 12-foot birdie attempt at the par-three second, as Cantlay knocked his tee shot a few feet closer and made the putt.

The pair exchanged pars over the next two holes before a two-shot swing at the fifth saw Cantlay fail to get up and down from just short of the green, while Rahm fired his approach to tap-in range and cut the advantage to a single stroke.

Cantlay responded by rolling in a five-foot birdie at the par-five next to move two ahead, as Rahm was unable to hole his from double the distance, although the American squandered an eight-foot birdie opportunity at the eight that would’ve extended his cushion.

Rahm splashed out of the sand to three feet and save par at the ninth, where Cantlay found rough of the tee and two-putted from 15 feet for a bogey that saw him reach the turn in level-par and just one ahead.

Both players made three straight pars from the 10th and shared the spoils again at the 13th when Cantlay inexplicably missed his birdie opportunity from inside four feet, with the pair also getting up and down from off the 15th green to save par and continue to trade blows on the back nine.
Cantlay made his breakthrough when he struck a brilliant approach to inside six feet at the 16th to take him two ahead with two play, but had to hole a six-footer to salvage just a bogey at the next after missing the green in three.

Rahm almost holed his approach into the par-five last for albatross and then came inches away from a chip-in eagle from the fringe, leaving a closing birdie, as Cantlay reach the green in two and two-putted for a winning birdie.

After withdrawing from The Northern Trust with an ailing left ankle, Patrick Reed is now in a Houston-area hospital recovering from bilateral interstitial pneumonia.

According Golf Channel’s Todd Lewis, Reed returned home to Houston on Wednesday, and while his ankle was being examined by a doctor, Reed was diagnosed with bilateral interstitial pneumonia, also called double pneumonia, which is an infection in both lungs that can cause inflammation and scarring. He was admitted to Houston Methodist Hospital early Friday morning.

“I’m on the road to recovery,” Reed said in a statement. “Once I’m cleared from the doctors, I look forward to returning. I wish you all the best and I can’t wait to get back out there.”

Reed added in his statement that his ankle, which also forced him to withdraw from last week’s Wyndham Championship, is “OK,” but he will not be able to play this week’s BMW Championship.

“It got really bad very quickly,” Reed’s wife, Justine, told Lewis.

Reed is currently 22nd on the FedExCup points list and is projected to fall to 26thwhen play is completed at The Northern Trust. It’s possible he could fall outside the top 30 after thee BMW, which would mean he’d fail to qualify for the Tour Championship for the first time since 2014.

His withdrawal from the BMW also means he will not qualify for the U.S. Ryder Cup team, although he can still be one of Steve Stricker’s six captain’s picks, which will be named on Sept. 8.

Stubbornness of belief carried him through 39 top-10s without a win
Tony Finau news conference after winning THE NORTHERN TRUST
He was a connoisseur of the close call, an object lesson in losing with dignity, and at odds with his putter. Golf gave Tony Finau ample reason to believe it just wasn’t meant to be. Not for him, and not on the PGA TOUR, the toughest tour in the land.

And yet there was an ember that simply wouldn’t die, a stubbornness of belief that despite all evidence to the contrary – eight runner-up finishes and 39 top-10 finishes since his first and only TOUR win in Puerto Rico, in 2016 – he could do this.

“I have an extreme belief in myself, and I have to,” Finau said after shooting a final-round 65 and beating Cameron Smith with a par on the first hole of a playoff at THE NORTHERN TRUST at rain-soaked Liberty National. “This game is hard as it is. These guys are so good as it is. If you can’t believe you can beat them, man, it’s just an uphill battle, and I just continue to believe.”

How did he do it? How did this extravagantly talented 31-year-old family man bounce back to rocket all the way to the FedExCup standings after so much heartache?

In golf terms, he simply hit it better than anyone else from tee to green. Maintenance workers worked to restore playability to the course after nine inches of rain necessitated a Monday finish, and the softness of the course may have further rewarded his distance advantage.

But for Finau winning the tee-to-green game is not so unusual. What stood out was his work on the greens, where he gained 2.338 strokes on the field in the final round. He was 16 in Strokes Gained: Putting for the week despite coming into the week at 114th in that stat.

His resilience was harder to measure but perhaps even more important. He went into his playoff against Smith with a 0-3 career record in sudden death, and some of the losses were gruesome. Falling to Max Homa at the Genesis Invitational this season? Tough.

Losing the Waste Management Phoenix Open last year, when Webb Simpson birdied the last two to catch him and then birdied the first hole of the playoff? Brutal.

Finau had seemed to have two hands on the trophy in Phoenix, and afterward his oldest son, a budding golfer himself, was in tears beside the 18th green. Soon the TOUR went on COVID hiatus, leaving Finau to think about what he could have done differently. On Monday he called it his toughest loss. “It’s hard losing,” he said, “and it’s hard losing in front of the world.”

A steady drumbeat of questions and endless analysis followed every close call. Finau changed putters, changed grips. He went left-hand low, switched back to conventional. After hitting a succession of spectacular shots but getting little out of it in his third-round 68 at Liberty National on Saturday, he said he was going to have a talk with the flatstick.

Instead, given the day off Sunday while Henri dumped nine inches of rain on the course, Finau practiced on the carpet in his hotel room throughout the day.

“I would say I putted for maybe an hour and a half total,” he said. “Just kind of five, ten minutes here and there throughout the day. I didn’t really leave my room all day.

“I wouldn’t say I found something,” he added, “but I knew I was putting it nicely.”

In fact, Finau one-putted seven of his last nine holes for a back-nine 30. Some of these, like his birdies on 12 and 16, were near kick-ins. So was his eagle at 13, set up by a majestic 6-iron that was perhaps the shot of the tournament.
But there were knee-knockers from just outside 6 feet to save par at 11 and 18. These are the types of putts he didn’t make in his win drought. And he certainly didn’t convert from over 30 feet, an unexpected bonus, the way he did for birdie at the par-3 14th hole.

Meanwhile, leader Jon Rahm, the world No. 1, was finally looking human, going 2 over for his last four holes. Smith birdied the 17th hole to join Finau at 20 under, but sliced his drive out of bounds on the first hole of the playoff, the par-4 18th, all but ending it.

Rahm was there to try and buck up a crestfallen Finau at the Genesis. And the shock was so severe at the Waste Management, no one seemed to know what to do. “This one’s going to sting,” Finau’s coach Boyd Summerhays said as they all staggered away.

Now, though, Finau didn’t need any consoling at all. He had jumped into pole position in the FedExCup Playoffs, and was off for a celebratory sushi dinner.

All those close calls suddenly didn’t matter anymore.

“I believe in myself,” he said. “I believe in my team. I haven’t had the wins to maybe have that type of confidence and belief, but you just have to.

“I have to believe I can go out there and beat J.T. today, and I can beat Jon Rahm,” he continued. “I have to believe that, and I did, and I continue to do that, and that’s the only reason why I’m sitting here today as the champion.”

Carnoustie’s 18th has caused such championship carnage that one wonders about the utterly warped mindset of the person who designed it. “Home” is an understated name for a hole that should come with an X rating.

Nanna Koerstz Madsen is the latest golfer to come a cropper right in front of the Carnoustie Hotel. Amazingly, this capitulation did not even include a trip to the infamous Barry Burn. She was in with a live chance of becoming the first Dane to win a male or female major when taking to the 72nd hole in a 12-under-par tie with Anna Nordqvist.
Koerstz Madsen even found the fairway. What happened next, a grisly scene, will surely haunt the 26-year-old for some time. Koerstz Madsen carved her second shot right and into a horrible lie in a greenside bunker, with her third an ugly shank which skittered into undergrowth beyond the putting surface.

Shellshocked, she later tapped in for a double bogey, which allowed Nordqvist to seal her third major title.
Koerstz Madsen, such an integral part of this tournament, suddenly found herself in a tie for fifth. Georgia Hall, Lizette Salas and Madelene Sagström shared second, one short of Nordqvist’s total. Sympathy for Koerstz Madsen is completely warranted; her challenge fell the way of Jean van de Velde and Sergio García at Carnoustie’s brutal last. No wonder there was no appearance for media duties. This had become Nordqvist’s day.

“I’ve been waiting for this for a while,” said Nordqvist. “I haven’t won one [a major] in a few years. There have been a lot of downs since then, which makes it even sweeter. I’m so happy to be here. My husband is from 20 minutes away from here and this place is truly special. I have absolutely loved it here, especially with the fans back.”

Indeed, Nordqvist, 34, is still not even the most famous member of her family in these parts. Her father-in-law, Hamish McAlpine, was Dundee United’s goalkeeper during a famed period in their history, under Jim McLean in the 1980s. McLean would have admired Nordqvist’s nerve; as others wilted, she produced a level par back nine of 36. A fourth round of 69 included the only dropped shot – at the 12th – of Nordqvist’s final 36 holes. This marks her first win of any kind since the Evian Championship of 2017.

The denouement was also painful for Sagström, who shared the lead when standing on the 18th tee. Sagström found a fairway bunker, from which she could only pitch out sideways. As a par putt from 20ft slid agonisingly past, Sagstrom knew she needed favours from both Nordqvist and Koerstz Madsen. Only one obliged.

Hall’s 67 included two eagles. The 2018 champion will rue a third round of 73. “I am very happy with the way I played,” Hall said. “That’s all I can ask for.” A 69 for Salas was bogey free.
Minjee Lee, who won her first major last month, started the day five from the lead but was to produce an epic charge. The Australian reached the turn in 32 before delivering further birdies at the 11th, 13th and 16th. Now at 11 under par, Lee knew playing the treacherous final two holes in at least minus one would give her a chance of victory. Instead, Lee made par at the 17th and bogeyed the last. A 66 and 10-under total meant fifth. “I’m going to take a month off now,” said Lee. All right for some.

The Scottish amateur Louise Duncan was just two adrift of Nordqvist and Koerstz Madsen at the start of round four. A straightforward birdie at the 1st for the 21-year-old university student further raised hopes of one of major golf’s all-time fairytale outcomes. A subsequent run of seven pars and a dropped shot stalled the dream but Duncan responded superbly by collecting shots at the 10th and 11th. Her 72 and tie for 10th meant nothing whatsoever in monetary terms given non-professional status but Duncan has proved herself as one to watch. The calibre of players Duncan finished in front of says it all about her showing.
“I feel a bit mind-blown, as if it’s not actually happened yet,” Duncan said. “So maybe it will take a couple of weeks to sink in. I feel over the moon with how I played and how I handled it. I had a great time.” Nelly Korda signed off with a 72 for a six under aggregate . Thoughts of Tiger-esque dominance by the 23-year-old, floated before this tournament, will have to wait for now. Next up for Korda is the Solheim Cup for which Europe’s prospects have been boosted by Nordqvist’s latest major glory.

Rahm and Thomas shot 8-under 63s to open the FedEx Cup PlayoffsThe biggest stars on the PGA Tour led the way again Thursday in Round 1 of The Northern Trust as the first leg of the three-week FedEx Cup Playoffs swing kicked into gear. At one of the most loaded non-majors in the past few decades, Jon Rahm and Justin Thomas — a pair of recent major winners — sit atop the leaderboard, and it’s difficult to see anyone directly behind them passing both on over the next 54 holes.

Following an early 66 by Harold Varner III (more on him below), Rahm and Thomas took over in the afternoon and put on an absolute show. They shot dueling 63s on dart after dart after dart to end the first day at Liberty National Golf Club. After climbing up to Varner for most of the afternoon, the two flew past him on the leaderboard by playing the last three holes in a combined 5 under.

Let’s dive deep into those two spectacular rounds and take a look at who else might have a hope of running them down over the final three days at The Northern Trust.

T1. Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas (-8): The Summer of Rahm continues. He’s lost to 15 golfers combined in his last five events (three majors) and trails nobody after 18 holes here. Though he’s operating an all-time level, it doesn’t seem all that unsustainable. Rahm made just four putts longer than 4 feet on Thursday on his way to the 63. This is the work of somebody who is the most locked-in player in the world from tee to green, and the recent data backs that up.

Thomas has not been as lights out from tee to green of late as Rahm; however, he is historically one of the two or three best iron players on the PGA Tour. He actually usurped Rahm in this category on his way to his own 63 on the back of giving himself nine looks for birdie inside of 10 feet. Thomas’ poor putting has gotten a lot of attention this year — every question he got in his post-round interview was about the old putter he put back in his bag — but his bread and butter is a statistical profile that looks like it did in Round 1: nearly five strokes gained on approach shots and roll in a few of these.

The result here is a tournament that feels dead to the other 121 golfers in the field. Data Golf has the odds of either Thomas or Rahm winning at over 65%, and nobody else has better than 3% odds. The undercurrent here is that there aren’t many monsters in the peloton, and now Rahm and J.T. are three clear of third and four clear of fourth. If it was just one of them in this spot — or if the men in this spot were not two of the five best players in the world — the field would feel more in contention. As it stands right now, though? It’s difficult to envision anyone other than one of these two grabbing his second win of the season.

T3. Harold Varner III (-5): Varner, who finished T3 here two years ago, was terrific early on Thursday. He got his putter rolling a little bit, and given how strong he normally is from tee to green, I’m confident in his staying power near the top of this leaderboard. Even more so when you look at who he kept company with in 2019 at this course. Patrick Reed won that year. Rory McIlroy, Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth and Rahm all finished in the top six. Varner hit his irons better than all of them that weekend. He’ll likely need to do the same again this weekend to have a chance after how the two guys ahead of him turned it on late in Round 1.

T4. Cameron Tringale, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Mackenzie Hughes, Kevin Na, Robert Streb (-4): Scott and Finau are at least intriguing here, and Scott has been a beast at Liberty National over the course of his career. He said after his round that he didn’t lament losing last weekend when he missed a 4-foot putt in a playoff at the Wyndham Championship, but rather it gave him confidence coming into this week. At 20-1, there might be some value there, although there’s a lot more with Finau at 33-1.
T10. Cameron Champ, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Sebastian Munoz, Keith Mitchell (-3): Hovland or Cantlay could certainly make a run at the top two, and both have plenty to play for even if they don’t win. Hovland is currently 11th in the FedEx Cup standings, and Cantlay is third. Any kind of high finish this weekend will position them well to be among those who start near 10 under (which is where the leader starts) at the Tour Championship a few weeks from now. This week is about this week, but during the FedEx Cup Playoffs, it’s also about two weeks from now and that finale that pays out $15 million to the champ.

T52. Bryson DeChambeau (E): I have to mention him, not because he was great in Round 1, but because of his violent variability. DeChambeau made two pars in Round 1 and somehow shot an even-par 71.

Collin Morikawa is the top-ranked player in the FedEx Cup points standings, and he leads a world-class field this week at the 2021 Northern Trust as the FedEx Cup Playoffs 2021 get underway. Morikawa has won twice this season and he’s finished inside the top-10 in five of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. The two-time major champion missed the cut last year at the Northern Trust, so he’ll be eager to play well this week at Liberty National Golf Club in New Jersey.

Morikawa has recorded eight top-10 finishes this season, one of the main reasons he’s being listed at 18-1 in the 2021 Northern Trust odds from Caesars Sportsbook. Jon Rahm, the No. 1 ranked player in the world, is the 10-1 favorite on the PGA odds board, followed closely by Jordan Spieth (16-1) and defending champion Dustin Johnson (16-1). Before locking in your 2021 Northern Trust picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up almost $10,500 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2021 Open Championship, McClure’s best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. He was also all over Daniel Berger (+220) and Emiliano Grillo (+700) finishing inside the top-20. McClure’s best bets netted over $2,200 at the 2021 Open Championship.

In addition, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner. And at the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing.

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 Northern Trust field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.

The model’s top 2021 Northern Trust predictions
One major surprise the model is calling for at the Northern Trust 2021: Johnson, the defending champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top five. Johnson dominated the field at the Northern Trust last season, which was played at TPC Boston, finishing with a score of 30-under par and winning by an 11-stroke margin.

The 24-time PGA Tour champion continues to crush the ball off the tee, averaging 313.2 yards per drive this season, which ranks eighth on tour. Johnson’s length off the tee also has him ranked in the top 20 in birdie average, scoring average and strokes gained: tee-to-green.

However, Johnson is hitting just 58.22 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which ranks 135th on tour. His inability to find the fairway off the tee has resulted in Johnson finishing T-19 or worse in three of his last five starts. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Northern Trust 2021 field.

Another surprise: Paul Casey, a 35-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.
Casey enters this week’s event full of confidence. That’s because the 44-year-old Englishman has secured seven top-10 finishes this season, which includes a T-5 showing at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational in his last start.

Casey has been able to secure those positive results thanks in large part to his sensational iron play. In fact, Casey enters the Northern Trust ranked second in strokes gained: approach the green (.917) and ninth in strokes gained: total (1.463). He also ranks seventh in strokes gained: tee-to-green (1.404) and 20th in scoring average (69.973). Those impressive stats, plus his long odds, make him a strong value pick in 2021 Northern Trust bets this week.

How to make 2021 Northern Trust picks
The model is targeting four other golfers with 2021 Northern Trust odds of 25-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

2021 Northern Trust odds
Jon Rahm 10-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Dustin Johnson 16-1
Collin Morikawa 18-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Rory McIlroy 22-1
Justin Thomas 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 25-1
Daniel Berger 28-1
Abraham Ancer 28-1
Scottie Scheffler 30-1
Viktor Hovland 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 33-1
Webb Simpson 35-1
Paul Casey 35-1
Cameron Smith 35-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Harris English 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Tony Finau 50-1
Sam Burns 50-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1
Corey Conners 55-1
Tyrrell Hatton 55-1
Kevin Kisner 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Jason Kokrak 66-1
Sungjae Im 66-1
Shane Lowry 66-1
Brian Harman 66-1
Ian Poulter 66-1
Russell Henley 66-1
Si-Woo Kim 80-1
Sergio Garcia 80-1
Branden Grace 80-1
Billy Horschel 90-1
Marc Leishman 100-1
Phil Mickelson 100-1
Jason Day 100-1
Kevin Streelman 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Cameron Champ 100-1
Maverick McNealy 125-1
Keegan Bradley 125-1
Alex Noren 125-1
Lee Westwood 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
MacKenzie Hughes 125-1
Matthew Wolff 125-1
Charley Hoffman 125-1
Brendon Todd 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Cameron Davis 125-1
Bubba Watson 125-1
Sebastian Munoz 125-1
Emiliano Grillo 125-1
Ryan Palmer 125-1
Roger Sloan 150-1
Matt Wallace 150-1
Brandt Snedeker 150-1
C.T. Pan 150-1
Max Homa 150-1
Aaron Wise 150-1
Carlos Ortiz 150-1
Chris Kirk 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Jhonattan Vegas 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Erik Van Rooyen 150-1
Talor Gooch 175-1
Pat Perez 200-1
Troy Merritt 200-1
Patton Kizzire 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Joel Dahmen 200-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 200-1
Zach Johnson 200-1
Doug Ghim 200-1
Brian Stuard 200-1
Chez Reavie 200-1
Hank Lebioda 200-1
Adam Hadwin 200-1
J.T. Poston 200-1
Scott Piercy 250-1
Brice Garnett 250-1
Matt Kuchar 250-1
Kyle Stanley 250-1
Sepp Straka 250-1
Keith Mitchell 250-1
Brandon Hagy 250-1
Luke List 250-1
Russell Knox 250-1
Andrew Putnam 250-1
Scott Stallings 250-1
Adam Schenk 250-1
Matt Jones 250-1
Brendan Steele 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
James Hahn 300-1
Henrik Norlander 300-1
Martin Laird 300-1
Matthew NeSmith 300-1
Lanto Griffin 300-1
Adam Long 300-1
Kramer Hickok 300-1
Sam Ryder 300-1
Chesson Hadley 300-1
Doc Redman 300-1
Denny McCarthy 300-1
Tyler McCumber 350-1
Harry Higgs 350-1
Richy Werenski 350-1
Robert Streb 400-1
Peter Malnati 400-1
Anirban Lahiri 400-1
Wyndham Clark 400-1
Hudson Swafford 500-1
Tom Hoge 500-1
Brian Gay 750-1