Arnold Palmer Invitational

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds: Surprising PGA Picks, Predictions from Model that Nailed Six Golf Majors

SportsLine simulated the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational 10,000 times and came up with a surprising leaderboard

The PGA Tour’s annual swing through Orlando always meant a coveted invitation from The King to play in his tournament. And while Arnold Palmer passed away in 2016, his tournament and legacy lives on this week at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The scenic Bay Hill Club & Lodge again serves as the backdrop to the event, which begins play Thursday on its 7,454-yard, par-72 layout. Two-time former FedEx Cup champion Rory McIlroy won the API in 2018 and is in the field, as is defending champ Tyrrell Hatton, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler.

McIlroy, who has won 18 times on the PGA Tour with three major championships, is the 9-1 favorite in the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland are both at 12-1 and Hatton at 16-1 on the PGA odds board. Before making any 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks or entering any PGA DFS tournaments on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been on fire since the return of the PGA Tour last June. In fact, it’s up almost $11,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

Last month at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, McClure nailed Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets. McClure was also all over Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in his best bets at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past few months.

After nailing Sergio Garcia (+5500) finishing on top of the leaderboard at the Sanderson Farms Championship, McClure finished up over $6,200 yet again on his best bets in that tournament. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure’s best bets included Garcia winning outright.

He also finished profitable at the U.S. Open, nailing two of his best bets, including a +1100 top-five bet on Matthew Wolff. In all, the advanced computer model has also nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed its golf picks has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

The model’s top 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational predictions

One huge shocker the model is calling for at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021: Jordan Spieth, who has won 11 times on the PGA Tour and is one of the top Vegas favorites, stumbles and doesn’t even crack the top 10. Spieth is making his Bay Hill debut, and is coming off a torrid stretch of golf that saw him contend on Sunday in three straight events.

Spieth led the Waste Management Phoenix Open late, until a Sunday 72 saw him finish fourth at TPC Scottsdale. The next week on the Monterey Peninsula, Spieth again was around the lead before finishing third at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. And two straight 68s to open the Genesis Invitational had Spieth in contention for a third straight week before finishing 15th at Riviera. But Spieth’s unfamiliarity at Bay Hill might prove costly, and there are far better values in the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2021 field.

Another surprise: Matthew Fitzpatrick, a 25-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational title. Fitzpatrick has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

The 16th-ranked player in the world, Fitzpatrick is still looking for his first PGA Tour win to add to his six international victories. The 26-year-old Englishman has three top-20 finishes so far in the 2020-21 PGA Tour wraparound season, tying for fifth at the Genesis Invitational, 11th at the WGC-Workday Championship at The Concession and 12th at the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek.

Fitzpatrick ranks in the top 20 of the PGA Tour this season in putting average at 1.711 strokes per green. That touch with the flat stick has been evident for Fitzpatrick before at Bay Hill, as Fitzpatrick finished ninth at last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and second at the 2019 event. Hungry for his first PGA Tour victory and with strong knowledge of this week’s course, Fitzpatrick is in line to be a major asset in your 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational bets.

How to make 2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational picks

Also, the model is targeting five other golfers with odds of 20-1 or higher to make a strong run at the title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds (via William Hill)

Rory McIlroy 9-1
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Tyrrell Hatton 12-1
Patrick Reed 20-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 25-1
Jordan Spited 28-1
Paul Casey 28-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Louis Oosthuizen 35-1
Jason Day 35-1
Francesco Molinari 35-1
Billy Horschel 40-1
Tommy Fleetwood 40-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Sam Burns 45-1
Harris English 45-1
Will Zalatoris 45-1
Max Homa 50-1
Jason Kokrak 50-1
Cameron Tringale 60-1
Kevin Na 60-1
Justin Rose 60-1
Branden Grace 66-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1
Kevin Kisner 70-1
Cameron Davis 70-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 70-1
Adam Hadwin 80-1
Robert Macintyre 80-1
Victor Perez 80-1
Talor Gooch 90-1
Lanto Griffin 90-1
Shane Lowry 100-1
Maverick McNealy 100-1
Chris Kirk 100-1
J.T. Poston 100-1
Matt Jones 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Henrik Stenson 100-1
Ian Poulter 100-1
Charley Hoffman 100-1
Lee Westwood 100-1
Si-Woo Kim 100-1

Puerto Rico Open 2021 odds

Puerto Rico Open 2021 odds: Four-time Euro Tour winner Thomas Pieters the favorite in opposite-field event

The PGA Tour’s 2020-’21 Super Season rolls on this week with two events, one a WGC in Florida and the other an opposite-field event in Puerto Rico. Both feature star-studded fields, and, naturally, both offer plenty of betting value.

In Puerto Rico, there are no single-digit, Dustin Johnson-like favorites, but there is a clear solo favorite – Belgium’s Thomas Pieters, who has opened at 14-1 to claim his first PGA Tour victory. The four-time European Tour winner and European Ryder Cup folk hero figured to be a staple at the WGCs when he first burst on to the scene, but a few lean seasons saw him fall out of the OWGR top 100.

He’s since fought back to 74th, and he’s looking to get back to the form that helped him rise to as high as 23rd in the world in 2017. He seems to be on the right path, having collected seven top-25 finishes in his last 13 worldwide starts.

Checking in just behind Pieters at 16-1 is Argentina’s Emiliano Grillo, who was in contention through 54 holes at the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December before fading on Sunday. England’s Matt Wallace, who has four European Tour victories, is also at 16-1. His fellow countryman Ian Poulter is at 18-1, along with South Africa’s Branden Grace. Byeong Hun An, who is still in search of his first PGA Tour win, is at 22-1.

Puerto Rico Open 2021 odds (odds courtesy of William Hill, as of Monday afternoon)

Thomas Pieters: 14-1 (bet $10 to win $140)

Emiliano Grillo: 16-1

Matt Wallace: 16-1

Branden Grace: 18-1

Ian Poulter: 18-1

Byeong Hun An: 22-1

Andrew Putnam: 25-1

K.H. Lee: 25-1

Brandon Wu: 28-1

Patrick Rodgers: 28-1

Tom Lewis: 28-1

Justin Suh: 33-1

Greyson Sigg: 33-1

Jhonattan Vegas: 35-1

Lucas Glover: 35-1

Ollie Schniderjans: 35-1

Will Gordon: 40-1

Vaughn Taylor: 50-1

Taylor Pendrith: 50-1

Lee Hodges: 50-1

Davis Riley: 50-1

Joseph Bramlett: 50-1

Sam Ryder: 50-1

Adam Schenk: 50-1

Roger Sloan: 55-1

Padraig Harrington: 60-1

Joohyung Kim: 60-1

Brandon Hagy: 60-1

Stephan Jaeger: 60-1

Cameron Percy: 60-1

Kramer Hickok: 60-1

Josh Teater: 60-1

Anirban Lahiri: 66-1

Aaron Baddeley: 66-1

Ted Potter Jr.: 66-1

Bronson Burgoon: 66-1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat: 66-1

Tim Wilkinson: 66-1

Kris Ventura: 66-1

Scott Brown: 70-1

Peter Uihlein: 70-1

Beau Hossler: 80-1

Chase Seiffert: 80-1

Brice Garnett: 80-1

Xinjun Zhang: 80-1

Ben Martin: 80-1

Shawn Stefani: 100-1

Wes Roach: 100-1

Rob Oppenheim: 100-1

Vincent Whaley: 100-1

J.J. Spaun: 100-1

David Hearn: 100-1

Guillermo Pereira: 100-1

Sebastian Cappelen: 125-1

Michael Gellerman: 125-1

Grayson Murray: 125-1

David Lingmerth: 125-1

Seamus Power: 125-1

Roberto Castro: 125-1

Paul Barjon: 125-1

Alex Cejka: 125-1

Zack Sucher: 150-1

Rafael Campos: 150-1

Carson Young: 150-1

Nick Watney: 150-1

Bill Haas: 150-1

Mark Anderson: 150-1

Rhein Gibson: 150-1

Satoshi Kodaira: 150-1

Fabian Gomez: 150-1

Johnson Wagner: 150-1

Chris Baker: 150-1

D.J. Trahan: 150-1

Matt Every: 150-1

Ben Taylor: 150-1

Sangmoon Bae: 150-1

Jonathan Byrd: 150-1

George McNeill: 200-1

Stephen Stallings: 200-1

Ryan Brehm: 200-1

Ryan Blaum: 200-1

Chris Couch: 200-1

Bryson Nimmer: 200-1

Michael Gligic: 200-1

Andres Romero: 200-1

Ricky Barnes: 200-1

Michael Kim: 250-1

Tommy Gainey III: 250-1

Dominic Bozzelli: 250-1

J.J. Henry: 250-1

Nelson Ledesma: 250-1

Martin Trainer: 250-1

Robert Garrigus: 250-1

Hunter Mahan: 250-1

Arjun Atwal: 300-1

John Senden: 300-1

Greg Chalmers: 300-1

Smylie Kaufman: 300-1

Carl Pettersson: 300-1

D.A. Points: 300-1

Daniel Chopra: 350-1

Derek Ernst: 400-1

Parker McLachlin: 400-1

Bo Van Pelt: 400-1

Ian Holt: 400-1

Mark Hensby: 500-1

Marcos Montenegro: 500-1

John Merrick: 500-1

Jason Bohn: 500-1

Robert Allenby: 500-1

Will Cannon: 500-1

John Rollins: 500-1

Dicky Pride: 500-1

Brendon De Jonge: 500-1

Chris Nido: 500-1

Roberto Nieves: 500-1

Eric Axley: 500-1

Charlie Beljan: 500-1

David Duval: 500-1

Ted Purdy: 500-1

Marcelo Rizo: 500-1

Tyler Collet: 500-1

Sebastian Saavedra: 1,000-1

Edward Figueroa: 1,000-1

Richard S. Johnson: 1,000-1

Carlos Franco: 1,000-1

Omar Uresti: 1,000-1

 

2021 Genesis Invitational

Here’s the prize money payout for each golfer at the 2021 Genesis Invitational

Easy? No. Satisfying? No doubt. That was how Max Homa had to feel after pulling out a playoff victory on Sunday at the Genesis Invitational.

With a par on the second extra hole, the 30-year-old California native from nearby Valencia claimed his second career PGA Tour title against the deepest field of any tournament thus far in 2021, on a difficult Riviera Country Club.

Homa reached the playoff after shooting a closing 66 in the final round. He then outlasted Tony Finau, who shot a final-round 64 as he, too, was trying to grab his second career tour title. More notably, Finau was looking to end a well-documented five-year winless drought dating back to the 2016 Puerto Rico Open. Since then, Finau has posted 36 top-10 finishes and 20 top-fives but no titles.

Homa also passed Sam Burns, the leader after each of the first three rounds who held a three-shot advantage at the turn on Sunday but finished one shot out of the playoff after posting a two-under 69.

A former NCAA champion at Cal-Berkeley, Homa had a chance to win in regulation, as he had a putt inside four feet for birdie on the 18th hole only to see it lip out. He then made an impressive par on the first extra hole, the par-4 10th, after his ball was nestled next to a tree off the tee. Homa somehow hooded a wedge on to the green, and two-putted to stay alive.

On the second extra hole, the par-3 14th, Homa hit the ball to 10 feet and missed the birdie putt. But Finau, who’s tee shot found the left bunker, couldn’t make his par-saving putt.

An emotional Homa described Riviera as his favorite course in the world and the Genesis as the tournament that helped inspire him to play golf.

Suffice it to say, there is plenty at stake on Sunday. Given the elevated status of the event, Homa earned 550 FedEx Cup points rather than the typical 500 and grabs a three-year exemption on tour instead of the usual two. And the purse, well it was “elevated,” too. The overall prize money payout for the week is $9.3 million with the winner earning $1.675 million. That’s a pretty handsome payday when you consider Homa’s career earnings before the win was $4,691,542

Here are the prize money payouts for each golfer who made the cut this week at Riviera. Come back shortly after the end of the tournament and we’ll update this with the list of players’ names and their specific earnings.

Win: Max Homa, 272/-12, $1,674,000

P-2: Tony Finau, 272/-12, $1,013,700

3: Sam Burns, 273/-11, $641,700

4: Cameron Smith, 275/-9, $455,700

T-5: Matthew Fitzpatrick, 277/-7, $344,100

T-5: Viktor Hovland, 277/-7, $344,100

T-5: Jon Rahm, 277/-7, $344,100

T-8: Wyndham Clark, 278/-6, $262,725

T-8: Dustin Johnson, 278/-6, $262,725

T-8: Matt Jones, 278/-6, $262,725

T-8: Francesco Molinari, 278/-6, $262,725

T-12: Talor Gooch, 279/-5, $197,625

T-12: Alex Noren, 279/-5, $197,625

T-12: Patrick Rodgers, 279/-5, $197,625

T-15: Patrick Cantlay, 280/-4, $151,125

T-15: James Hahn, 280/-4, $151,125

T-15: Xander Schauffele, 280/-4, $151,125

T-15: Jordan Spieth, 280/-4, $151,125

T-15: Will Zalatoris, 280/-4, $151,125

T-20: Rickie Fowler, 281/-3, $101,835

T-20: Branden Grace, 281/-3, $101,835

T-20: Matthew NeSmith, 281/-3, $101,835

T-20: C.T. Pan, 281/-3, $101,835

T-20: Scottie Scheffler, 281/-3, $101,835

T-20: Nick Taylor, 281/-3, $101,835

T-26: Jim Furyk, 282/-2, $67,890

T-26: Lanto Griffin, 282/-2, $67,890

T-26: Adam Hadwin, 282/-2, $67,890

T-26: Scott Harrington, 282/-2, $67,890

T-26: Andrew Landry, 282/-2, $67,890

T-26: Cameron Tringale, 282/-2, $67,890

T-32: Bo Hoag, 283/-1, $51,925

T-32: Mackenzie Hughes, 283/-1, $51,925

T-32: Jason Kokrak, 283/-1, $51,925

T-32: Marc Leishman, 283/-1, $51,925

T-32: Andrew Putnam, 283/-1, $51,925

T-32: Kyle Stanley, 283/-1, $51,925

T-38: Tyler Duncan, 284/E, $40,455

T-38: Russell Henley, 284/E, $40,455

T-38: Brooks Koepka, 284/E, $40,455

T-38: Kevin Na, 284/E, $40,455

T-38: Adam Scott, 284/E, $40,455

T-43: Wesley Bryan, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Cameron Davis, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Brian Harman, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Collin Morikawa, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Sebastián Muñoz, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Joaquin Niemann, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: J.T. Poston, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Brendan Steele, 285/+1, $28,179

T-43: Sepp Straka, 285/+1, $28,179

T-52: Charley Hoffman, 286/+2, $22,152.60

T-52: Tom Hoge, 286/+2, $22,152.60

T-52: Danny Lee, 286/+2, $22,152.60

T-52: Tyler McCumber, 286/+2, $22,152.60

T-52: Kevin Streelman, 286/+2, $22,152.60

T-57: J.B. Holmes, 287/+3, $21,297

T-57: Nate Lashley, 287/+3, $21,297

T-57: Richy Werenski, 287/+3, $21,297

T-60: Keegan Bradley, 288/+4, $20,832

T-60: Brian Gay, 288/+4, $20,832

T–62: Charl Schwartzel, 289/+5, $20,460

T-62: Harold Varner III, 289/+5, $20,460

T-64: Scott Piercy, 290/+6, $20,088

T-64: Matthew Wolff, 290/+6, $20,088

66: Kyoung-Hoon Lee, 293/+9, $19,809

67: Sung Kang, 294/+10, $19,623